In one week, I’ll open the presale period for my upcoming book, The Journey to Phronesis. Yikes. This project has been my life for the past six months, and while I’m proud of what it’s becoming, I’m also deeply anxious about the work still ahead. It’s a strange and vulnerable mid-point.
In last week’s post, I wrote about the problem the book tackles: our “thinking crisis.” The world’s complexity is accelerating, but our ability to make sense of it is not. I believe that this widening thinking gap is one of the most critical challenges humans will face in the future. When I shared the first version of Chapter 1 with my development editor, she told me that I made my point but depressed her in the process.
But here’s the thing. I’m an optimist. I like to focus on solutions. And that sobering diagnosis is just the starting point.
We all have a choice. We can choose a different path forward. This new alternative is not a dramatic overhaul of who you are, but instead a conscious decision to actively work on our thinking — to reclaim this essential human skill as our own. It’s about cultivating a mindset that consistently seeks to understand the hidden connections that bind our challenges together.
The curiosity that results from this mindset is the foundation for developing phronesis — the practical wisdom to navigate life with clarity and purpose.
An Overview of the Fundamentals
The remainder of Part 1 focuses on the fundamentals of systems thinking. My approach is built upon the groundbreaking work of systems thinking pioneers, including Donella Meadows, Peter Senge, and Derek and Laura Cabrera. My contribution is to synthesize their brilliant work into a practical guide, showing how these concepts can apply to our everyday lives. What I find remarkable is that many of these modern systems thinking concepts — used to describe complex systems in fields like business, science, politics, and technology — can also be found woven into the writings of ancient philosophers, such as the Stoics.
To see the world as a system, we first need a language that can give structure to its complexity. I explore a simple but powerful grammar for our thoughts, developed by the Caberas as mentioned above, known as DSRP. Through these four rules, we can create clearer maps of situations by defining their boundaries and tracing the relationships between parts.
This new language helps us to see the recurring patterns that govern our lives. I explore feedback loops, the invisible engines of change and stability. I examine how reinforcing loops create the “snowball effects” we observe when we excel in our habits and careers, and balancing loops create the stubborn plateaus we encounter when trying to make a change. I also write about how hidden delays in systems are often the true source of our frustrations.
Once we can see these structures and patterns, we can appreciate the truly fascinating properties of our interconnected world. I explore concepts such as emergence (where the whole becomes something altogether different from its individual parts) and the art of finding leverage (the point at which a small intervention can create a significant change).
A foundational tool that ties all of these ideas together is a mental model called the Iceberg. It’s a core framework that can help ground us at the beginning of this journey. Rather than summarize it, I’d like to show you with an excerpt from Chapter 2 in the current version of my manuscript.
The following is an excerpt from the September 2025 version of the manuscript for The Journey to Phronesis.
The Iceberg: A Model for Reality
To move beyond simply reacting to problems, we need a new model of reality. Picture an iceberg floating in the Arctic. What you see above the waterline represents only about 10% of its total mass. The real bulk – the part that can rip through a ship’s hull – lies hidden beneath the surface. This image presents one of the most powerful models that systems thinkers utilize: the Iceberg Model, published by Daniel Kim in his 1999 paper, "Introduction to Systems Thinking."
Many of our most persistent problems operate similarly. The frustrating, visible parts that demand our attention are just the tip of the iceberg. The real causes that continue to create these problems lie hidden beneath the surface. I learned this the hard way during the summer of 2022.
Level 1: Events (What we see)
At the event level, we find the things that happen in our world. This includes the things we can observe directly: our successes, failures, and crises. These visible occurrences command our immediate attention and trigger our regular responses.
In the summer of 2022, the events in my life were clear and painful: my business was failing, I was out of shape, I was always anxious, and I felt lost. These were the visible crises – the equivalent of water rushing into the hull of my life ship. I tried to work longer hours to save my business; I bounced between diets and workout plans; I relied too heavily on substances to help mask my anxiety. But like bailing water without patching the hole, these solutions addressed symptoms, not causes.
Most of us live our lives at this level, perpetually reacting to what just happened without asking why it keeps happening.
Level 2: Patterns (What we notice)
When we drop below the surface, we begin to see patterns that reveal trends over time. This shift from seeing isolated incidents to recognizing patterns is the first major step in developing a systems thinking muscle.
Looking back, this wasn’t my first professional struggle or my first bout with anxiety. There was a pattern: I started ventures with enormous enthusiasm, worked unsustainably hard, neglected my health and relationships, burned out at trying to do too much, and then wondered why things fell apart. This cycle had repeated through multiple jobs, projects, and years of my life. The specifics and severity varied, but the pattern remained constant.
When we see patterns, we move from reaction to anticipation. I knew that if I didn’t change anything, my next venture would likely follow the same path. But predicting failure isn’t the same thing as preventing it.
Level 3: Systemic Structures (What we design)
This level contains the underlying architecture – the rules, relationships, and feedback loops – of the patterns we observe. Here lies one of systems thinking’s most fundamental insights: structure influences behavior.
My life operated within several reinforcing structures:
A work routine with minimal boundary between my professional and personal time
A reinforcing loop where anxiety led to overworking, which led to missed workouts and poor eating, which negatively impacted my health and energy, which further increased anxiety
An information diet fueled by social media that fueled negative emotions like anger, fear, and sadness
A schedule that prioritized work over my mental and physical health
A definition of success tied too much to external achievement
These weren’t character flaws. They were structural problems. It didn’t matter how much willpower I had. I was destined to burn out.
Level 4: Mental Models (What we believe)
Beneath the structures are mental models: the beliefs and assumptions that shape everything above them. Mental models are so fundamental that we rarely examine them, yet they create the structures we build.
My operating mental model was simple and toxic: “My worth equals my productivity.” This belief system made rest feel like laziness, made saying no to things feel like failure, and made taking care of myself feel selfish. It created structures that demanded constant “productive” output, which generated patterns of burnout, ultimately leading to the crisis events of 2022.
This mental model was so ingrained that I didn’t even realize it was there. It felt like the truth of how a successful life should be lived, not a belief.
Level 5: Vision (What we aspire to)
At the very foundation of the iceberg lies our vision: our picture of what we want for our future. Vision is the guiding force that determines which mental models we hold as important as we pursue our goals. Without a clear vision, we default to our cognitive biases and the unconscious patterns driven by unexamined mental models.
What I discovered through reading Stoicism and other philosophies was that I had never truly articulated a vision for my life. I was driven by a default set of programming: the societal expectations of success and crippling fears that my best might not be enough. The wisdom from these ancient philosophers challenged me to envision a different future: What kind of person did I want to become? What would a life well-lived look like?
For the first time, I began to craft a conscious vision: I wanted to be someone who combined meaningful work with deep relationships, who valued wisdom over wealth, who measured success by character development rather than external achievements. This vision of becoming a virtuous, introspective, lifelong learner gave me the motivation to examine and change my mental models.
The transformation began when that vision became clear. It drove me to challenge my fundamental mental model – from “worth equals productivity” to “worth comes from living according to my values.” This new mental model led to the development of new structures, including morning routines that incorporated reading and reflection, stricter boundaries between work and life, and regular exercise that was made non-negotiable in my schedule. These new structures created new patterns: more energy, deeper relationships, and more consistent good decisions. I had rebuilt the system from the bottom up.
An Invitation to the Journey
I hope that the excerpt above gives you a clearer sense of the book’s approach — bridging powerful, modern frameworks with the practical challenge of living a better life. The goal is not just to think differently, but also to live differently.
The journey is about to begin. The official presale for The Journey to Phronesis will launch next week. I’ll be offering some exciting perks for those who preorder early.
The presale period is important for authors, both established and emerging. As I’m learning, a lot goes into publishing a book! I have an entire community of people — editors, marketers, publishers, artists — all helping me to turn this into a finished product. Presales help to fund their work. It also helps the publisher understand demand and how much of the book to print. If you are interested in purchasing the book, buying it during the presale period is the most meaningful way you can support this project. I’ll share more next Monday when orders officially open.
In the meantime, if these ideas resonate with you, you can help me immensely by spreading the word. Liking this post on Substack or sharing it with a friend or colleague is another incredible way to help.
And if you’re reading this on the web and haven’t subscribed yet, I’d greatly appreciate it if you did.
This book is my contribution to a mission I care about deeply: helping us all think a little more clearly in a world that desperately needs it. Thank you for being a part of this journey with me.
All the best,
Michael